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Russia's Mobilization Is the Act of a 'Desperate' Kremlin Losing the War

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Vladimir Putin's September 21 order to mobilize additional manpower for Russia's unprovoked war in Ukraine is already being executed. How quickly the new troops can be trained and deployed, in what quantities, and to what effect, remain questions that only time can answer.

But at the moment, the clearest consensus to be found among observers in Russia, Ukraine, and the West is this: these are the steps of a country that is losing a war.

Only two weeks ago, General Ben Hodges (ret.), former commanding general of the United States Army Europe, predicted that Ukrainian forces would take back Russian-occupied Crimea "within a year." Yesterday's announcement from the Kremlin only served to reinforce that expectation.

"The partial mobilization announcement lacks a coherent explanation and reveals that President Putin knows the situation in Ukraine is deteriorating," Hodges told Newsweek. "The Kremlin is desperate. Because of this announcement, I am even more confident in Ukrainian success."

 

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Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin, a supporter of his country's political leadership, nevertheless agreed with the retired American general that the Russian army in its current form was not capable of prevailing in the war.

"If we had tried to persevere with our current level of forces, the war would have dragged on endlessly," he told Newsweek. "The Ukrainian army has improved to the point that Russia requires greater numbers than it can presently deploy."

Shurygin was careful to note that Putin's order does not have the potential to affect the balance of forces immediately.

"Over the next four months at least, the situation on the ground will not change," he said. "These new call-ups will need to be armed, clothed, trained, and integrated into units before they can be sent to the front."

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